Israeli Intelligence had prior knowledge of the attack plan scheduled for October 7, a whole year beforehand.
On October 8th, the day after the Hamas attack, I penned an article calling bullshit on the “intelligence failure” narrative that emerged immediately in the aftermath– how could the governing authorities and media call it confidently an “intelligence failure” mere hours after the event?– just as the same narrative emerged just following the 9/11 attacks in Manhattan and DC.
I took a moment to thoughtfully consider the information before forming an opinion, as any diligent journalist would. However, in this instance, it was blatantly obvious from the outset that the story was nothing more than a fabrication, and I didn’t feel the need to hesitate or equivocate. It was clear that the narrative would soon be discredited, and I didn’t want to lend it any credence by delaying my response.
On October 8th, a cursory examination of the available evidence refuted the notion of an “intelligence failure” narrative, as it was illogical and untenable.
Gaza is possibly one of the most heavily monitored areas in the world, with extensive surveillance conducted from above using satellites and drones, as well as ground-level intelligence gathering by Mossad operatives. This is commonly referred to as “human intelligence” or “humint” within the intelligence community.
· The population density in Gaza is extremely high, making it one of the most crowded areas on the planet.
· The Israeli government controls all of Gaza’s borders in a total siege-style blockade. Nothing goes in or out without the state’s blessing
· The October 8 operation involved tens of thousands of operatives and a bevy of equipment that would be virtually impossible to move into and around Gaza without detection
· Hamas clearly had international financial and logistical support, which could not have flowed into the strip without detection
The operation involved meticulous planning that spanned several months, if not years. As part of their preparations, the Israeli military constructed a mock Israeli town within Gaza, which served as a training ground. Israeli intelligence agents closely monitored these training sessions from strategic outposts along the border.
· Hamas, sponsored by Iran, had enormous geopolitical incentive to attack when it did, as Israel was on the verge of signing normalization agreements with the Sunni Muslim world that would have threatened Iranian interests, which Israel well understood
· Netanyahu’s historically controversial and unpopular government was barely clinging to power at the time of the attack, the target of unprecedentedly intense and large protests. Bibi himself was on the verge of imprisonment on corruption charges. An excuse to wage what could be framed as an “existential” war and remain in power indefinitely– which has since transpired– was seemingly the only way to remain for Netanyahu and his hardline allies to remain in office and out of prison. This objective necessarily would have required ignoring actionable intelligence.
… This is not a comprehensive compilation of the factors indicating that Israeli intelligence could not have been unaware of the approaching attack, as well as the motives shared by all the parties involved to allow the events of October 7 to unfold as they did.
It subsequently came out that the substantially less powerful Egyptian intelligence, which does not operate in sovereign Israeli territory of the Gaza Strip as Mossad does, knew of the attack beforehand and warned their Israeli counterparts, which went unheeded.
Now we have additional validation.
“New York Times Reports on …”
Israeli authorities got their hands on Hamas’s blueprint for a terrorist attack slated for October 7th over a year in advance, according to various documents, emails, and interviews. However, ISraeli military and intelligence bigwigs didn’t think much of the plan, writing it off as wishful thinking on Hamas’s part and doubting their ability to pull it off.
The approximately 40-page document, which the Israeli authorities code-named “Jericho Wall,” outlined, point by point, exactly the kind of devastating invasion that led to the deaths of about 1,200 people.
The translated document, which was reviewed by The New York Times, did not set a date for the attack, but described a methodical assault designed to overwhelm the fortifications around the Gaza Strip, take over Israeli cities and storm key military bases, including a division headquarters.
Hamas carried out the plan with surprising accuracy, launching a massive rocket attack at the beginning of the offensive, deploying drones to disable security cameras, and utilizing automated weaponry along the border. They also deployed gunmen in large numbers, who entered Israel through various means, including paragliders, motorcycles, and on foot, all on October 7th.
The plan also included details about the location and size of Israeli military forces, communication hubs and other sensitive information, raising questions about how Hamas gathered its intelligence and whether there were leaks inside the Israeli security establishment.
The paper was shared extensively among Israeli military and intelligence commanders, however, officials and documents revealed that Hamas lacked the capability to carry out an attack of that magnitude and ambition.
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